As the 2024 election approaches, a Bloomberg survey has highlighted a distinct economic divide in the expectations for a Trump versus a Harris presidency.
According to respondents, a Trump victory would likely benefit stock market and gold prices, while a Harris administration is viewed as more favorable for housing costs.
The survey results reveal varied levels of confidence in potential economic changes based on each candidate’s perceived strengths.
This article dives into these insights, examining recent trends in both the stock market and the housing sector to help clarify these predictions.
Stock Market Expectations Under Trump
Many respondents associate former President Trump’s economic stance with favorable stock market conditions. According to Bloomberg, 38% of survey participants see the potential for accelerated stock market gains under Trump, compared to 13% under Harris. The stock market’s performance during Trump’s first term, including steady increases in the S&P 500, likely shapes these opinions.
- Stock Market Trends: The S&P 500 is currently up around 22% year-to-date, showcasing investor optimism, even amid inflation concerns. Many analysts attribute stock market resilience to Trump’s deregulation policies in his previous term.
- Gold Prices: The survey also indicates that 57% expect gold prices to rise if Trump wins, suggesting increased demand for this safe-haven asset amidst potential market volatility.
Key Data on Stock Market Trends (2024)
| Metric | Year-to-Date Increase | Projected Growth Under Trump | Projected Growth Under Harris |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 22% | +15% (Surveyed Avg) | +8% (Surveyed Avg) |
| NASDAQ | 18% | +12% | +7% |
| Gold Prices | $1,900/oz | +5-10% | Stable |
“Trump’s policy stance on corporate taxation and deregulation has historically aligned well with stock market growth. Given the current trends, the market may see a faster pace of gains if Trump returns to the White House,” explains Mark Stanton, Chief Economist at Wealth Insight Group.
Housing Sector Preferences for Harris
On the other hand, survey participants anticipate that a Harris presidency would better address the housing affordability crisis—a priority issue for many Americans facing rising mortgage rates and home prices.
- Mortgage Rates: Respondents projected that under Harris, mortgage rates could fall to a median of 5.5% by the end of her term, compared to 5.9% under Trump.
- Housing Affordability: Harris’s focus on affordable housing initiatives resonates with those looking to purchase homes. Her policies are perceived as more favorable for new buyers, with respondents expecting potential government subsidies for low-income housing.
Current Housing Data and Projections
| Factor | Current Rate/Price | Projected Rate Under Harris | Projected Rate Under Trump |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed Mortgage | 6.54% | 5.5% | 5.9% |
| Median Home Price (2024) | $416,000 | +3% increase | +5% increase |
| Housing Affordability | Low | Improved | Moderate |
“A Harris administration could bring more focus to housing affordability, with policy adjustments targeted at first-time buyers and lower mortgage rates,” says Carla Peterson, Senior Housing Analyst at American Realty Consultants.
How the Election Could Impact Markets?
While these projections illustrate voters’ perspectives on specific sectors, historical data shows no consistent long-term relationship between election outcomes and market performance. A U.S. Bank analysis suggests that broader economic trends, including inflation and employment rates, often outweigh political shifts in determining stock market and housing trends.
Despite this, investor sentiment remains closely tied to potential policy changes. Notably:
- Interest Rates: Harris’s policies are associated with potentially lower mortgage rates and affordable housing, which would positively impact the real estate market.
- Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies: The survey suggests Trump is seen as more favorable for Bitcoin, with market participants citing his pro-business stance as beneficial for emerging asset classes.
Additional Economic Factors
| Economic Factor | Trump’s Impact | Harris’s Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Moderate | Higher control focus |
| Job Growth | Strong | Steady |
| Cryptocurrency | Favorable | Unclear |
Insight: “The economy is multifaceted, and while election outcomes may sway investor sentiment temporarily, long-term impacts are often determined by global economic cycles,” explains Todd Jensen, Portfolio Manager at FinancePlus.
Historical Election Market Impact
Past elections have often triggered notable shifts in the stock market and housing trends, influenced by campaign promises or anticipated policy changes. Historically, markets tend to react strongly to perceived pro-business or regulatory policies from incoming administrations, though broader economic trends also play a crucial role.
- Reagan (1980): Pro-business, tax cuts boosted market confidence; stocks rose over his tenure.
- Clinton (1992): Economic recovery saw strong market growth, with significant S&P gains.
- Obama (2008): Housing crisis response and market recovery post-2008; slow but steady stock gains.
- Trump (2016): Deregulation and corporate tax cuts initially fueled market rally.
Presidential Impact on Stocks and Housing
| President | Year Elected | Stock Market Impact | Housing Trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan | 1980 | Strong growth due to tax cuts | Mixed; high mortgage rates |
| Bill Clinton | 1992 | Bull market, S&P growth | Steady home price growth |
| Barack Obama | 2008 | Recovery post-crisis | Increased affordability initiatives |
| Donald Trump | 2016 | Initial rally with tax cuts | Home price growth; low rates |
This historical context shows how market expectations shift based on policy directions, highlighting why some investors favor certain candidates for stock growth or housing affordability.
FAQs
What economic areas could Trump improve if elected?
Trump is expected to benefit the stock market, cryptocurrency, and potentially gold prices. However, the broader economy’s reaction would depend on his policies on taxes, deregulation, and international trade.
How might Kamala Harris’s policies impact housing?
Harris’s policies are perceived as supportive of housing affordability, with potential adjustments in mortgage rates, particularly for first-time homebuyers. Her approach may prioritize government-subsidized housing.
Will a Trump or Harris administration affect interest rates?
Both candidates have varied impacts on interest rates. Harris is perceived to support lower mortgage rates, while Trump’s policies may focus more on stock market growth.
How have past presidential elections impacted the stock market?
Historically, the stock market doesn’t show consistent patterns based on election outcomes. Economic trends like inflation and employment rates often play larger roles in stock performance.
Which candidate is viewed as better for cryptocurrency?
Survey participants generally favor Trump for cryptocurrency, attributing his policies to a more pro-business stance that may benefit digital asset markets.
Could a Harris presidency improve housing affordability?
Yes, respondents feel that Harris’s focus on affordable housing would benefit the sector. Her policies may include subsidies and support for low-income housing, benefiting new buyers.
What are some projected trends in housing under each candidate?
Under Harris, mortgage rates are expected to drop to 5.5% on average, while home prices may see a lower increase rate. Trump is associated with slightly higher mortgage rates but stable home prices.
Are stock market returns directly linked to election outcomes?
No, while election outcomes can influence sentiment, long-term returns are more closely tied to inflation, interest rates, and broader economic trends.
