With Donald Trump set to assume the presidency in 2026, many are closely watching how his policies will affect mortgage rates and the housing market.
Known for his focus on tax cuts, deregulation, and a strong American economy, Trump’s approach could reshape the financial landscape, impacting homeowners, potential buyers, and lenders alike.
Whether you’re already a homeowner or planning to buy soon, understanding these anticipated changes can help you make informed decisions in an evolving market.
Trump's Economic Policies: How They Affect Mortgage Rates
One of Trump’s hallmarks has been his focus on tax cuts and deregulation. These policies aim to boost economic growth but can also lead to higher deficits. Here’s how these strategies may shape the mortgage landscape in the coming years.
- Tax Cuts: Tax reductions typically aim to spur economic growth, but they also increase government spending and national debt. This could lead to inflation, which often pushes mortgage rates higher. For instance, during Trump’s previous term, similar policies led to increased demand, which contributed to a rise in housing prices.
- Deregulation: Trump’s approach to deregulation could make mortgage access easier, benefiting potential buyers by simplifying requirements. However, increased demand due to easier mortgage approval might drive up rates.
Current Mortgage Rate Statistics
Based on Freddie Mac’s data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate currently hovers around 7.0%. As rates fluctuate, staying updated on economic shifts, such as those reported on Bankrate, is essential.
| Year | Average 30-Year Fixed Rate | Key Economic Factors |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.5% | Pandemic recovery |
| 2023 | 5.5% | Federal rate hikes |
| 2026 | 7.0% | Inflation control measures |
| 2026 (proj.) | 7.5% to 8.0% | Trump’s fiscal policies, inflation |
“Mortgage rates in 2026 could reach levels unseen in over a decade,” says Jordan Kelly, Chief Economist at Secure Mortgage Solutions. “Higher rates mean potential buyers should plan ahead and consider fixed-rate options.”
Federal Reserve and Mortgage Rates: What to Expect
The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in shaping mortgage rates by controlling interest rates. When the Fed raises rates, mortgage rates often follow suit. Currently, efforts to curb inflation have led the Fed to raise rates steadily. If Trump's policies increase inflation, the Fed may continue this trajectory.
According to Federal Reserve statistics, the rate of inflation directly correlates with the frequency of Fed rate hikes. Here's a look at how Federal policy may impact mortgages:
| Scenario | Federal Reserve Action | Likely Mortgage Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Rising inflation | Increase in interest rates | Higher mortgage rates |
| Stable or low inflation | Maintain current rates | Mortgage rates stabilize |
| Economic slowdown | Potential rate cuts | Mortgage rates may decrease |
Tips for Homebuyers
- Consider Fixed-Rate Mortgages: In a fluctuating market, fixed-rate mortgages offer stability.
- Evaluate Loan Limits and Benefits: For those eligible, a VA loan could provide lower rates compared to conventional loans. Learn more about VA Loan Limits and other benefits at VA Loan Network.
“If inflation trends upward, the Federal Reserve’s actions could substantially increase mortgage rates,” explains Taylor Grant, Financial Strategist at Global Housing Partners. “Homebuyers should brace for higher monthly payments and consider locking in a rate sooner rather than later.”
Projected Mortgage Rates Under Trump's Policies
Inflation and Government Spending
Higher government spending without tax increases can push inflation upwards. In turn, higher inflation often results in the Fed increasing interest rates, which leads to higher mortgage rates. The current inflation rate, as tracked by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, already points to upward pressure on costs.
Mortgage Rate Forecast for 2026
| Year | Projected 30-Year Fixed Rate | Contributing Factors |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.0% - 7.5% | Inflation control, Fed rate hikes |
| 2026 | 7.5% - 8.0% | Inflation, Trump’s policies |
| 2026 | 8.0% or higher | Long-term inflation, deficit spending |
For prospective VA borrowers, securing a VA Loan could be a practical choice. VA Loan Process offers step-by-step guidance on obtaining a VA loan, which can be more affordable than other options, especially in a high-rate environment.
Tips for Managing Mortgage Costs in 2026
For those concerned about rising rates, there are practical steps to reduce the impact on mortgage costs:
- Lock in a Rate: If you're close to buying, locking in a rate can protect you from future increases.
- Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM) Consideration: In high-rate climates, ARMs can offer lower initial rates. Check out the VA Loan Guide to see how ARM options work with VA loans.
- Increase Your Down Payment: A larger down payment can reduce your loan-to-value ratio, potentially qualifying you for a better rate.
“In a high-rate market, consider alternative financing options or additional down payment strategies,” advises Rachel Kim, a Senior Loan Advisor with ChoiceLending. “Being proactive in managing your mortgage can save thousands over time.”
How Rising Rates Affect Monthly Payments
To illustrate how higher rates impact payments, see the table below for estimated monthly costs based on mortgage rate increases.
| Mortgage Rate (%) | Loan Amount ($) | Monthly Payment ($) |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 300,000 | 1,896 |
| 7.0 | 300,000 | 1,996 |
| 7.5 | 300,000 | 2,097 |
| 8.0 | 300,000 | 2,201 |
Even a slight increase in the mortgage rate can significantly impact your monthly payments, making it crucial to plan ahead.
FAQs on Trump’s Win and Mortgage Rates
Will mortgage rates rise in 2026 due to Trump’s policies?
Likely, as inflation and deregulation can drive rates higher.
How does inflation affect mortgage rates?
Inflation often leads the Fed to increase interest rates, which raises mortgage rates.
Can VA loans shield Veterans from high mortgage rates?
Yes, VA loans often have lower rates and better terms, especially for eligible Veterans.
Should I consider an adjustable-rate mortgage in 2026?
If rates are high, ARMs may offer a lower initial rate, but risks apply if rates increase further.
How can I secure a lower rate if rates are rising?
Consider increasing your down payment or paying discount points to reduce the rate.
Will the Fed cut rates if the economy slows?
Possibly. If the economy faces recessionary pressures, rate cuts may follow.
How does government spending impact mortgage rates?
Increased spending without offsetting revenue can lead to inflation, increasing mortgage rates.
What’s the difference between VA and conventional loan rates?
VA loans generally offer lower rates and more favorable terms than conventional loans.
The VA Loan Network Editorial Team is comprised of dedicated mortgage specialists and financial writers committed to providing veterans and service members with accurate, up-to-date information on VA loan benefits, eligibility, and the home-buying process.
