With the 2024 election on the horizon, many prospective homebuyers are holding off on major decisions, closely watching the outcome and wondering how it will shape the housing market.
As Donald Trump and Kamala Harris position themselves with contrasting visions for America’s future, buyers are left speculating on how a change in leadership could impact interest rates, housing policies, and overall economic stability.
Here, we’ll break down the potential implications of the election and how homebuyers can prepare for what lies ahead.
Why Are Homebuyers Waiting for the Election?
Election cycles often bring uncertainty, and with two prominent candidates like Trump and Harris, the stakes feel even higher. A shift in economic and housing policies could significantly impact the affordability and accessibility of homeownership, especially for first-time buyers.
Key Concerns for Homebuyers:
- Interest Rate Volatility: Mortgage rates tend to fluctuate during election years as markets respond to uncertainty. Prospective buyers wonder if they should lock in rates now or wait for potential changes post-election, depending on who wins the presidency.
- Economic Policies: Each candidate presents different approaches to the economy. Trump’s previous focus on deregulation could influence housing incentives and tax breaks, while Harris may push for more affordable housing initiatives.
- Market Stability: Economic markets often react strongly during election seasons, and many buyers worry about making large financial commitments amid volatility.
According to Freddie Mac, current mortgage rates hover around 7% for a 30-year fixed loan, with many experts predicting possible rate adjustments depending on the election results.
How Could the Election Impact Mortgage Rates?
One major question for potential buyers is how mortgage rates will respond to the election’s outcome. Rates are sensitive to the broader economy, including policies on inflation and federal spending. If Trump or Harris wins, the market could shift depending on the economic policies they plan to implement.
Historical Mortgage Rates Around Election Years
| Year | Pre-Election Rate | Post-Election Rate Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3.6% | +0.3% |
| 2020 | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 2024 (Current) | 7.0% | TBD |
“Elections often lead to adjustments in mortgage rates as the market anticipates economic policy changes,” explains Emma Hastings, Senior Loan Advisor at HomePath Solutions. “If Trump wins, we may see a focus on tax cuts and deregulation, while Harris might emphasize affordable housing, which could stabilize or even lower rates if implemented effectively.”
The Housing Market in 2024: Data and Trends
The housing market has been unpredictable in recent years, but it could shift depending on the election outcome. Both Trump and Harris may influence different aspects of the housing industry, from supply and demand to federal housing assistance programs.
Current Market Data:
- Median Home Price: As of mid-2024, the median home price in the U.S. is approximately $430,000, according to Zillow.
- Inventory Levels: Inventory remains low, with available homes down by about 20% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
- Buyer Demand: Despite higher prices, buyer demand remains strong, particularly in suburban areas and smaller cities where homes are more affordable.
Key Housing Market Metrics in 2024
| Metric | 2024 Statistics | Comparison to 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Median Home Price | $430,000 | +24% |
| Housing Inventory | Down 20% | Lower by 25% |
| Average Mortgage Rate | 7% | +4% |
“We’re likely to see some stability after the election as buyers and sellers adjust to the new administration’s policies,” says James Whitman, Mortgage Specialist at UrbanHome Advisors. “If Trump continues his focus on deregulation, the market might lean toward growth. However, if Harris wins and pushes for housing affordability, it could increase inventory in certain regions, easing competition.”
Reasons to Consider Waiting Until After the Election
For some buyers, waiting until after the election may provide a clearer financial outlook. Here are potential benefits of delaying your home purchase until the political dust settles:
- More Predictable Interest Rates: Rates could stabilize once the market adjusts to Trump or Harris’s policies. Waiting could provide more certainty in this area.
- Policy Transparency: With Trump and Harris offering different economic approaches, waiting allows you to see the specific policies of the incoming administration, particularly around tax breaks and homebuyer incentives.
- Possible Inventory Increase: Some sellers also wait during election seasons, so inventory might increase post-election, giving buyers more choices.
Reasons to Buy Now Despite Election Uncertainty
For those who are financially ready, buying now could be a strategic move despite election season uncertainty. There are benefits to jumping in before November:
- Securing Current Rates: With rates currently around 7%, locking in a rate now could prevent surprises later if post-election policies lead to an increase.
- Competitive Advantage: Some buyers may hesitate due to the election, which could give you an advantage in negotiation and availability.
- Avoid Potential Price Increases: Home prices tend to rise over time, regardless of elections. Waiting could mean paying more if demand continues to drive prices upward.
“Many buyers pause during elections, but if you’re financially stable, buying now might make sense,” notes Clara Yates, Lead Mortgage Analyst at NextGen Lending. “With both Trump and Harris having unique approaches, the market could shift unpredictably. Securing a home now could prevent future uncertainty.”
Practical Tips for Buyers on the Fence
If you’re still deciding, here are some actionable steps to help make the choice easier:
- Get Pre-Approved: A pre-approval will give you a better idea of what you can afford and strengthen your position if you choose to buy.
- Monitor Policies and Rates: Stay informed on both Trump and Harris’s proposed housing policies, as well as any market trends leading up to the election.
- Explore Flexible Loan Options: Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) might offer lower rates initially, which could be advantageous if you’re uncertain about a long-term commitment.
- Consider a Recast Post-Election: If you want to reduce payments after the election, look into a mortgage recast, which allows you to apply a lump sum toward the principal without refinancing.
FAQs About Buying a Home During Election Season
Should I wait until after the 2024 election to buy a home?
It depends on your financial situation and risk tolerance. Waiting could provide more stability in rates and policies, but home prices or rates could increase based on whether Trump or Harris wins.
How do elections impact mortgage rates?
Elections can cause economic volatility, affecting mortgage rates. Rates may stabilize once markets adjust to Trump or Harris’s economic policies.
Will housing policies change after the election?
It’s likely. Trump may focus on deregulation and tax incentives, while Harris might emphasize affordable housing initiatives, which could impact the market.
Are home prices expected to drop after the election?
There’s no guarantee. Prices are driven by multiple factors, but Harris’s policies may increase affordable housing options, which could impact specific areas.
What is a mortgage recast, and can it help post-election?
A mortgage recast applies a lump sum to your principal, reducing payments without refinancing. It’s a potential strategy if rates remain high after the election.
Is an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) a good choice right now?
An ARM can offer lower initial rates, helpful in uncertain times. Consider your long-term plans, as rates will adjust based on market conditions.
How can I prepare to buy if I decide to wait?
Save for a down payment, improve your credit, and stay updated on policies from Trump and Harris that could impact housing and mortgages.
Does waiting mean I’ll have fewer homes to choose from?
It’s possible. Inventory often fluctuates, but more sellers may enter the market after the election, depending on the economic environment.
Final Thoughts
Deciding whether to buy a home before or after the 2024 election largely depends on your financial readiness and tolerance for political and economic uncertainty.
Trump and Harris offer contrasting approaches that could shape housing policies, mortgage rates, and overall market stability.
By staying informed, exploring loan options, and preparing financially, you’ll be in a stronger position to make an informed decision. Whether you buy now or wait, understanding the potential election impact on the housing market can help you approach this major investment with confidence.
Levi Rodgers is a real estate expert and retired U.S. Army Green Beret. He writes about VA loans, homeownership, and helping Veterans buy homes. After service, he built a top real estate team and shares trusted advice for first-time and military buyers. Get to know Levi Rodgers
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